Sales Down 20% in 2025: When the Whole Industry Is Struggling

The Situation

A multi-location fast casual owner posted to r/restaurantowners in January 2026 with detailed week-by-week sales data from 2025. The data showed in-store sales dropping 9-20% starting in mid-February 2025, worsening to -15% to -25% through April, then stabilizing at -10% to -15% for the rest of the year. The owner tracked weather conditions, catering revenue separately, and YoY comparisons by week. Their overall company health was better than the in-store numbers suggested because catering was strong, but the in-store trend was unmistakable. The question: is this a fixable operational problem, or is it a macro trend that no individual operator can outrun?

What the Thread Said

The thread became a data-sharing exercise, with dozens of operators posting their own 2025 numbers. The pattern was remarkably consistent: in-store dining down 10-25% across most markets, with the sharpest declines in urban locations and markets with significant federal employment (Washington D.C. was mentioned repeatedly). Several operators noted that catering and off-premise revenue had partially offset the in-store decline, which is consistent with the broader industry data showing that 75% of restaurant orders in 2024 were consumed off-premise. The consensus: 2025 was the worst year since COVID for independent operators, driven by a combination of consumer spending fatigue, price sensitivity after years of menu price increases, and a structural shift away from in-store dining that accelerated during COVID and never fully reversed.

Rod Would Add

When the whole industry is down 15-20%, the question is not "what am I doing wrong?" -- it is "can my specific cost structure survive a prolonged period of lower revenue?" That is a different question, and it requires a different analysis. The operators who survived 2025 in reasonable shape had two things in common: their cost structure was lean enough to remain viable at lower revenue levels, and they had a revenue diversification strategy (catering, events, off-premise) that partially offset the in-store decline. The operators who did not survive had built their cost structure around pre-2024 revenue levels and had no flexibility when volume dropped. The practical takeaway: run your break-even analysis at 80% of your current revenue. If the answer is "we lose money," you have a structural problem that macro recovery will not solve. If the answer is "we are tight but viable," you have a timing problem that patience and cost discipline can address. Those are two very different situations that require two very different responses.

The Lesson

When the whole industry is down, the question is not what you are doing wrong -- it is whether your cost structure can survive at lower revenue. Run your break-even at 80% of current sales before deciding whether to wait it out.